Reality Check 2008

It has become a mantra among the Obama folks that he will be able to win a number of traditionally red states in the general election. This is perhaps the result of various slogans such as “Yes We Can!” and “He Brings People Together!”. It is a wonder that they continue to believe the latter slogan after the incredibly contentious meeting of the DNC Rules Committee this past weekend, but in general it was time to get some polling state-by-state.

For this, the http://www.electoral-vote.com/ site proves useful. It is currently showing head-to-head matchups in each state between McCain and both Obama and Clinton. After compiling the information on June 2, 2008, assigning half the electoral votes in the case of a polling tie, the results are:
   Obama 296 – McCain 242
   Clinton 343.5 – McCain 194.5

Following are the states currently in the columns of McCain, Either Democrat, Obama and Clinton ((*) denotes a tie; the states not in Obama’s column are McCain in a Obama-McCain matchup, and similarly for Clinton):

McCain	Dem	Obama	Clinton
Alabama	California	Colorado	Florida
Alaska	Connecticut	Indiana (*)	Kentucky
Arizona	D.C.	Iowa	Michigan (*)
Arkansas	Delaware	Virginia (*)	Missouri
Georgia	Hawaii	Wisconsin	Nevada
Idaho	Illinois		North Carolina
Kansas	Maine		West Virginia
Louisiana	Maryland
Mississippi	Massachusetts
Montana	Minnesota
Nebraska	New Hampshire
North Dakota	New Jersey
Oklahoma	New Mexico
South Carolina	New York
South Dakota	Ohio
Tennessee	Oregon
Texas	Pennsylvania
Utah	Rhode Island
Wyoming	Vermont
	Washington

The most interesting aspect of the map is that, although Obama’s followers have a dream of turning red states blue, it is Clinton who would have the great impact in that area.